WorldExample
Will Russia and Ukraine agree a full ceasefire before 2027?
14% chance of yes
Odds are for illustration55 days left
In the news
After a local ceasefire in Oleshky, Russian and Ukrainian delegations are due to meet the US first lady at the White House on Thursday.
Read it on BBC NewsHow this would get decided
YES if both governments publicly agree a ceasefire covering the whole front line before the closing time. Local or partial ceasefires don't count. Otherwise NO.